Race You There, Part II

Written by: Staff on 9th October 2012

Race You There, Part II

epa03073612 France's Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in action against Kei Nishikori of Japan in their fourth round match at the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 23 January 2012. Nishikori won the match in five sets 2-6,6-2,6-1,3-6,6-3. EPA/MARTIN PHILBEY |

What is your sign of autumn? Birds migrating? Leaves dropping? Guys talking about their ATP Race standing?

The latter is, of course, the token on the ATP. So it’s time that we talk a little about the situation.

Often, by this time of year, the Race and the rankings look a lot alike. Not in 2012. Roger Federer is #1 in the rankings — but Novak Djokovic leads in the Race, and substantially. Andy Murray is #3, barely ahead of Rafael Nadal

One thing about the Race is very much like last year: The qualification status. Last year at this time, we wrote: “The ATP has already formally qualified Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, and Federer. Ferrer, 1500 points behind Federer but more than 800 ahead of #6 Fish, is almost certainly going to make it as well; the only question is when he mathematically clinches.” It’s just the same now: Djokovic, Federer, Murray, and Nadal have qualified, and Ferrer will; the only question is when. (His inability to play this week obviously slows things down.)

So who gets the last three spots? Here is the list of the Race Top Twenty entering the week:

1. Djokovic: 10410

2. Federer: 8895

3. Murray: 6910

4. Nadal: 6840

5. Ferrer: 4780

6. Berdych: 3720

7. Del Potro: 3670

8. Tsonga: 3115

9. Tipsarevic: 2720

10. Almagro: 2415

11. Monaco: 2330

12. Gasquet: 2325

13. Raonic: 2245

14. Isner: 2115

15. Cilic: 1970

16. Simon: 1760

17. Wawrinka: 1720

18. Kohlschreiber: 1715

19. Nishikori: 1695

20. Dolgopolov: 1500

So, right now, it’s Berdych, del Potro, and Tsonga in line for the final spots. And there is a fairly big gap between Tsonga and #9 Tipsarevic. Of course, there is an even bigger one between del Potro and Tsonga. Given that the maximum most players can earn yet this year is about 2750 points (and that’s if the player wins both Masters, a 500, and a 250!), we’d say that Berdych and del Potro are pretty close to set. It’s Tsonga who has the biggest reason to worry — although he likes indoor courts a lot, which helps.

Who can catch him? That’s the interesting question. Tipsarevic is closest, but he tends to do best at smaller events, and his slate is full. Almagro is already out of Shanghai. So is Monaco, and besides, he isn’t a fan of indoor events. Gasquet is… Gasquet. So the biggest threats may be Raonic and Isner. But they’re a thousand points back.

Short summary: Tsonga’s chances look pretty good. But we’ll have a much clearer picture after this week.