Federer Secures 299 Weeks at Number One through October 15

Written by: Tennischiro on 8th September 2012

Federer Secures 299 Weeks at Number One through October 15

epa03385464 Roger Federer of Switzerland hits a return to Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic during their quarterfinals round match on the tenth day of the 2012 US Open Tennis Championship at the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, USA, 05 September 2012. The US Open runs through Sunday 09 September 2012. EPA/LARRY W. SMITH |

At least that is the situation if Djokovic follows the schedule outlined on his personal website, entering Beijing, Shanghai and Paris leading up to the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November.

Here are the schedules (according to their websites), for Federer, Djokovic and Murray until the end of the year. Note that the ATP 1000’s carry a maximum of 1000 points and the ATP 500’s carry a maximum of 500 points to the winner. The ATP World Tour carries a potential 1500 points.

Federer: Shanghai ATP 1000, Basel ATP 500, Paris ATP 1000 and ATP World Tour Finals in London. Fed has a 0-pointer for both Tokyo and Shanghai from last year on his current points standing,but he picked up 3000 points winning Basel, Paris and London without the loss of a match after the US Open last year. Federer will lose just 360 points on Monday by losing in the quarters instead of the semis he reached last year. That will leave him at 11805 until Basel comes off his schedule. In the meantime, he will actually pick up 90 points when the 0-pointer for Tokyo comes off and is replaced by 90 points for Doha. In addition, he will have a shot at picking up points in Shanghai. So Fed will still top the rankings at least until after Shanghai and he will hold at least 11895 points until his points from Basel come off a couple of weeks later. That gets Fed to 299 weeks on top. The results of Shanghai will determine whether Djokovic can catch him before the results from the brilliant run Fed had through Basel, Paris and London comes off.

Djokovic: Beijing ATP 500, Shanghai ATP 1000, Paris ATP 1000 and ATP World Tour Finals in London. After the US Open, Novak has just 560 points left to defend from last year: 180 in Basel, 180 in Paris and 200 for London. He also has zero pointers effecting his ranking from Beijing and Shanghai. Of course, Nole won the US Open and is defending 2000 points from the 2011 US Open title. He has secured 720 of them. 480 points are at stake against Ferrer in the semis and another 800 in the final. Even if Nole were to win the US Open again, he would still have only 11, 270 points, trailing Roger by 535 points. He’ll be able to pick up 500 points if he wins Beijing, but Roger gets 90 just be not playing. Djokovic will still trail the Swiss maestro by 125 points going into Shanghai. He’ll need to surpass Roger’s performance in Beijing by at least 125 points to overtake him. That’s at least a semi (360) vs a quarter (180). The way Djokovic is playing, I think he could run the table, but the real wild card is Murray.

Murray: Tokyo ATP 500, Shanghai ATP 1000, Basel ATP 500, Paris ATP 1000 and London ATP World Tour Finals. Murray has equaled his semifinal 2011 effort in the US Open so he can actually move up this weekend if he gets past the semis. However, he has 1750 points to defend from sweeping the Asian swing last year winning Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai. So while a win at the US Open would move him up to 8570, he’s already scheduled to surrender 250 points for Bangkok. Actually, he’ll only lose 160 points as the result will be replaced with a 90 pointer in Barcelona. Murray is also capable of running the table, but he doesn’t seem to have the constitution to maintain that higher level through all those events; at least, not judging by past and even recent performances. The player that went down a set and 5-2 to Cilic seems to be too close below the surface of the player that won 18 of the next 21 games. But he certainly could be the spoiler that keeps Djokovic from retaking the number one ranking before the end of the year. And allowing Federer to get that 300th week at number one. Nevertheless, if he did run the table until Basel winning the US Open, then defending in Tokyo and Shanghai, he would still go into Basel with 8410 points to Roger’s 11895 even if he does get blanked in Shanghai (not likely). Still, mathematically, Murray could run down Roger and Novak by the end of the year.

While Roger would love to get the year=end number one, it seems highly unlikely that he could reproduce the tremendous run he had at the end of last year. I think we will hear more about this in the broader press coverage as Federer approaches 300 weeks, but it seems to me he will need some help from Murray to sidetrack Djokovic for just long enough to allow Fed to achieve that milestone.

I hope I am wrong and Federer can pull a rabbit out of his hat again this winter, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Djokovic already leads the Race to London Year-to-Date rankings by 525 points through the US Open semis and is looking better than ever. Plus there is no Nadal to deal with for at least the next couple of months. What I would bet on is Federer getting to 300 weeks at number one. I think I could get some odds on that wager and I’m counting on a little help from Murray to make it happen. Of course, Murray could throw a wrench in that scenario if he draws Federer in the semis of Shanghai. And, no, I don’t think Berdych or Ferrer will have any bearing on these projections.