Men’s Tennis Moving Towards Cincinnati!

Written by: Staff on 12th August 2012

Men's Tennis Moving Towards Cincinnati!

epa03297631 Roger Federer of Switzerland takes on Novak Djokovic of Serbia during their semi final match for the Wimbledon Championships at the All England Lawn Tennis Club, in London, Britain, 06 July 2012. EPA/JONATHAN BRADY |

This time, we’re getting serious.

Last week’s Canadian Open was pretty attenuated by Olympic after-effects. Not this week. We have eight of the Top Ten in Cincinnati. The only two top players missing are Rafael Nadal, who is still hurting, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who managed to bang his knee into a fire hydrant in Canada and is still recovering. But Roger Federer and David Ferrer, who skipped Toronto, are here, and Andy Murray intends to play. Whoever wins this thing will earn it.

Federer is of course the #1 seed, and looking to make sure he stays on top for a while. His chances are pretty good. Novak Djokovic is #2 and hoping to keep within striking distance. Murray is #3 and in Djokovic’s half. In the absence of Nadal, David Ferrer is the top Spaniard and the #4 seed; he is in line to face Federer in the top half semifinal. Although a greater threat to Federer might be #5 seed Tomas Berdych, drawn to face Ferrer in the quarterfinal — except that Berdych is in pretty poor form right now. The #6 seed belongs to Juan Martin del Potro, who is in Murray’s quarter and who will presumably be looking to improve on his Canadian result. Janko Tipsarevic is #7 and in Djokovic’s quarter, meaning that they could well meet for the second straight week; Juan Monaco is seeded #8 and has the last bye.

John Isner, who did so well in Toronto, was to have been the #9 seed and would have been the first seed to face del Potro, but he has withdrawn. Even though play has not begun, the tournament reports that he will be replaced by a lucky loser. Mardy Fish’s ranking just took a hit, but he’s seeded #10 based on his old ranking and, for the second straight week, could face Monaco in the third round. Gilles Simon hasn’t been playing well lately, but he is #11 and in Berdych’s party of the draw. Marin Cilic is #12 and drawn to face Tipsarevic. Alexandr Dolgopolov gets the #13 seed and is in Djokovic’s section. Kei Nishikori is #14 and in Ferrer’s eighth. Philipp Kohlschreiber, the #15 seed, is in Federer’s part of the draw. And Andy Roddick is #16 and in Murray’s section.

Federer’s opener is pretty good, but he is one of the few. Kohlschreiber has to open against Brian Baker, who has done so well this summer, then Ryan Harrison or Bernard Tomic. Fish starts against Feliciano Lopez. Monaco may well face Radek Stepanek in his opener. Ferrer’s likely second round opponent is Stanislas Wawrinka. Nishikori opens against Marcel Granollers, then Kevin Anderson (who would really like a U. S. Open seed) or James Blake. Simon starts against Marcos Baghdatis, then faces the winner of a contest between Richard Gasquet and Milos Raonic — both of whom would be seeded if this week’s rankings were used. Berdych has a nice draw, but del Potro has to open against red-hot Tommy Haas or David Nalbandian. Isner’s replacement will face a path that runs through Viktor Troicki and Mikhail Youzhny — two others looking to clinch Open seeds. Roddick will face Denis Istomin or Julien Benneteau in round two. Murray will start against Sam Querrey (in on a wildcard, but not far from seeding based on his current ranking) or Jurgen Melzer. Tipsarevic and Cilic both have fairly soft draws, but Dolgoplov starts against Nikolay Davydenko, then probably Florian Mayer. And Djokovic will have to start against Robin Haase or Andreas Seppi.

The Rankings

We’ve alluded several times to the U. S. Open seeds. That’s because this is the week that will determine the seeding list. And, yes, we’ll be talking about that throughout the week.

The title at Cincinnati last year went to Andy Murray. Novak Djokovic was the finalist, with Tomas Berdych and Mardy Fish semifinalists. Quarterfinalists were Gael Monfils (who is still unable to play), Roger Federer, Gilles Simon, and Rafael Nadal.

If we look just at seeding tiers, things are pretty well settled: Federer and Djokovic will be the Top Two; Nadal and Murray the Next Two; Ferrer, Tsonga, and Berdych will be in the #5-#8 block, along with either Tipsarevic or del Potro. But the order within the tiers could change. It’s just possible that Djokovic could regain #1 at Cincinnati — if he has one title and one final in the next two weeks and Federer doesn’t do much.

Nadal will be #3, Murray #4, and Ferrer #5. Tsonga will probably be #6, although Berdych could pass him with a title. That #8 spot, though — Tipsarevic leads, but del Potro and even Monaco and Gasquet have chances.

Three of those five will almost certainly round out the Top Ten.

In the #9-#12 seeding block, it will be the two odd men out above, as well as (probably) Isner, plus one other, likely Almagro or Cilic or perhaps Gasquet.

Expect #13-#16 to be Almagro or Cilic, likely Dolgopolov and Gasquet, and one other, whose identity is completely up in the air. Simon, Nishikori, and Raonic currently lead the contest.

It seems safe to say that Simon, Nishikori, Raonic, Kohlschreiber, Roddick, and Haas will be in the Top 24 (one of them will likely be in the Top Sixteen), but that leaves three spots. The leaders are Mayer, Granollers, and Verdasco. All of them will, of course, be seeded. We’d say that Wawrinka, Fish, and Seppi are also guaranteed. The other players currently in line for seeds are Youzhny, Querrey, Istomin, Lopez, and Benneteau. The first two of those five look pretty close to certain. But Troicki, Anderson, and maybe Melzer have shots at the final three.

Gael Monfils loses enough points that he will not be seeded in New York — even assuming he can play. Stepanek also appears almost certain to be unseeded.

Topics: American tennis news, Cilic, Cincinnati Open 2012, Del Potro, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, John Isner, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Tennis News