The Federer Express Takes Number One Ranking

Written by: Tennischiro on 9th July 2012

The Federer Express Takes Number One Ranking |

A few months ago, I started my “Post US Open Performance Measure” to show how well Federer was doing since the US Open. In my mid May article, “Do You Like to Play What If Roger …” (https://archive.10sballs.com/2012/05/19/do-you-like-to-play-what-if-roger%E2%80%A6/), I laid out a scenario where Roger could retake the number one ranking by the time the US Open was over. But a combination of things going right for him enabled him to reach that goal today after sweeping Djokovic and then Murray out of Wimbledon to claim the title. As it turned out, the 150 points he picked up reaching the final of Halle, was the difference in getting ahead of Djokovic. As far as retaining that position, Roger has just 990 points to defend until the end of the US Open (Canada-90, Cincy-180 and US Open 720). Djokovic has 3600 points to defend in the same time frame (Canada-1000, Cincy 600, US Open-2000). Nadal may actually be more of a threat in the ranking race because he has just 190 points to defend in Canada and Cincy as well as 1200 for his US Open finals. On top of that, there is the Olympics this summer which will be an extra chance for everyone to pick up some points. As it is played at Wimbledon this year, Roger is one of the favorites.

What does all that mean? First of all, recognize that it is a great achievement that Federer won Wimbledon and regained that number one ranking. But a lot of people are looking at it as a statistical anomaly and discount the magnitude of Roger’s accomplishment. On the contrary, over the last 10 months, Roger has clearly put up the best record, winning a Slam, the ATP World Tour Finals, 3 Masters 1000 events (Paris, Indian Wells and Madrid) as well as 3 ATP 500s. In addition, he made the semis of the other three Slams. Even if Djokovic repeats his fabulous 2 month 3600 point performance of last summer, Roger needs a measly (by his average performance) 990 points to stay ahead of Novak. Novak will need all his points as well as a superior performance (at least superior to Roger) at the Olympics, to regain the number one ranking for the US Open. That’s a tall order for anyone, even Djokovic. Nadal is now over 2000 points behind these two and is unlikely to displace either of them in the top two spots before the US Open, but he will have something to say about whether or not Djokovic is able to sweep the table.

Bottom line: I think Roger is a favorite to retain the number one ranking right up through the US Open. Now, can he repeat his 3000 point performance in Basel, Paris and London? He could, but it is doubtful. At the same time, he will have a chance for more points on the Asian swing, especially the Masters 1000 in Shanghai. Also, we have to recognize that Rafa and Nole should pick up a lot more points from that part of the season this year. It all goes together to make up an interesting race to the yearend number one ranking.

Wimbledon Semis and Finals

I didn’t get to see much of the semis. When Djokovic won that second set from Roger, I though it was curtains for the Swiss maestro. But from all the reports I’ve seen, he played some of his best tennis to usher the defending champion out of his stranglehold position in the last 4 slam finals.

Then in the finals, Fed started slow losing his serve right off the bat. He broke back in the 4th game, but played a loose game at 4-4 letting Murray have the break with just one winner and 3 of Roger’s errors.

Down a set, they held serve through the first 11 games of the second and I was truly concerned for Federer’s chances as he had to fight from behind repeatedly to negate break points and hold serve. In the meantime, Murray faced just one break point in the second game and after holding that game, lost only 2 more points on his serve until he was up 30-0 on his serve at 5-6. At this point, Federer showed some of his brilliance bringing Murray forward and eventually breaking with a backhand volley winner at 30-40.

There was a 40 minute delay at 1-1, 40-0 on Fed’s serve as they gave in to the rain and closed the roof. This had to be considered an advantage for Roger as he had won something like 37 on his last 39 matches indoors since last fall. However, Murray started out holding serve easily, but now Roger was holding rather easily as well. Federer got the key break point on the 19th point of the 2-3 game. Murray had successfully defended 7 break points in that game, but Murray was clearly having a hard time. By my count, he got in just 8 of 20 first serves in the game. After Murray fell and watched Federer’s shot drop out of reach on that 19th point, Roger played a forcing shot to Murray’s backhand off a second serve and drew the error to put him up 4-2. From this point in the third set, there were no more break points. Roger served out his next two service games at 30, finishing the set off with an ace.

So now, Federer was just a set away. Murray threatened with a break point at 30-40 in the second game, but that was the last break point he would see. Roger broke Andy with a brilliant backhand in the 2-2 game and that was the last break point of the match. It would be enough as they both held serve until won his seventh All England Championship 6-4 in the 4th set.

When I look at the match the way I’ve broken it down here, it seems it was a relatively routine match, but it was anything but. Although the overall quality was high and they were hitting huge shots, no one seemed to really have control of the match for any length of time. It seemed to me that Andy made a few more unforced errors than normal, but the depth and speed of the shots they were routinely playing was making it tough for both of them. They both fought off a lot of break points and changing the outcome of just a couple of those break points could easily have changed the result. It was a bitter pill for Murray to swallow, but he has to recognize that he made a lot of progress getting to the finals at SW 19 and was really not very far from actually winning. He certainly made a lot of friends for himself with his emotional speech during the trophy presentation. As for Federer, there is just very little left to say about him. But this extended stay at the top of the game is truly amazing.

10sChiro

to see the charts of the men’s final, go to

1st Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/fedmurraywimb2012set1.jpg/

2nd Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/708/fedmurraywimb2012set2.jpg/

3rd Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/fedmurraywimb2012set3.jpg/

4th Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/fedmurraywimb2012set4.jpg/

to see other articles by 10sChiro, go to

https://archive.10sballs.com/category/columnists/dr-chiro/