Round of 16 Picks for 10sChiro

Written by: Tennischiro on 2nd July 2012

Round of 16 Picks for 10sChiro

epa03292520 Roger Federer of Switzerland celebrates a point against Xavier Malisse of Belgium during their fourth round match for the Wimbledon Championships at the All England Lawn Tennis Club, in London, Britain, 02 July 2012. EPA/JONATHAN BRADY |

Well, I finally get to take a deep breath two weeks after my last posting here. I haven’t seen much tennis from the UK the last couple of weeks, not even from Wimbledon, but things should finally settle down for me.

I managed to make it to NY on schedule, getting into Easthampton Wednesday afternoon as I hoped and I was able to find a place to stay for July and August. I helped out in an open house at Buckskill Tennis on Saturday morning, June 23 doing a little video analysis and trying to help a few people out with their forehands while introducing them to my “Twins”. That afternoon I headed up to Connecticut for a clinic with 5 kids through Friday. Believe it or not, I was on the court over 50 hours in 6 days with 20 hours of group lessons, 26 hours of private lessons and about 3 hours of running a round robin to see how those kids could transfer some of their new skills to match play. There was probably another 5 hours of transferring machines and equipment from my van to the court and setting up the equipment and taking it down each day. I hadn’t spent that kind of time on the court in probably 35 years. But it was great! The kids embraced the process and were willing to give some new ideas (for them) a chance. We had a great time and they learned a lot

Of course, the quality of play in the round robin wasn’t very good. It’s important to understand, when you are trying to make changes in your game, don’t expect to play better right away. As much as I could tell these teenage boys (15 to 17) that they needed to concentrate on process goals instead of outcome goals for a little while, they expected to be able to instantly execute in match play the way they did with me in the controlled environment of the lessons. I wasn’t trying to set them up to do a little better in a tournament in a week; I was trying to show them what to do to make themselves better players in the long run. I can show a player what to do and how to make the changes, but it takes a long time and a lot of reps to change old habits and develop new ones.

In any case, I had hardly anytime to watch much more than the evening summary of the day’s play at Wimbledon. I got back to Easthampton yesterday and now I am about halfway moved into my “digs” for July and August. I’ll be starting with the adult clinics at the club tomorrow morning and I’m looking forward to it. I trained quite a bit the last couple of months to get ready for the physical load and I was concerned how I would hold up. Fortunately, I came out of it with no problems inspite of the fact I did so much more than I really expected to do,

Now it will be relatively quiet and I can turn a little more of my attention to monitoring the pro game and trying to post some regular comments here on 10sBalls.com. While I was very busy, I wasn’t totally isolated from what was going on at SW19 and I was aware that some very interesting plot lines were developing in the men’s draw.

The signature match of the first week has to be Rosol’s upset of Nadal in 5 sets. First of all, it has to be pointed out that Nadal did not play badly. He made only 3 total unforced errors in the last 3 sets; he averaged 118 mph on his first serves with a 67% first serve percentage. He served up to 130 mph and won 102 of 139 service points including 19 aces and only 2 double faults. Once Rosol got that service break in the Nadal’s first service game, there was little anyone could have done. Rosol hit 19 of 23 first serves in the fifth as he averaged 127 mph in that set; he lost just 1 of those points and only two more on his 4 second serves. However, if Nadal was more used to serving big and holding against big returns, he might have been more able to resist the go-for-broke attitude Rosol brought to the match. All credit is due to Rosol for not only playing aggressive, but also for maintaining his cool and his resolve at the end of the match and continuing his aggressive take-no-prisoners attitude right up to the very last point. Kohlschreiber answered the challenge in straight sets by giving him short low balls he was not used to and never allowing Lukas to get the upper hand. As good as that strategy may have been on Saturday, it probably wouldn’t have worked on Thursday because Rosol just had one of those days.

The other stories that hold the most interest for me come from Nadal’s section of the draw where Mardy Fish, recovering from a surgical procedure to repair heart arrhythmias and Brian Baker , recovering from 5 surgeries and having 0 points just 12 months ago, not having been in the top 400 since July of 2006, are fighting for the privilege of facing each other in the quarterfinals.

Fish faces Tsonga whom he lost to the only two times they played, last year at the US Open in 5 sets and then again in straight sets at the World Tour Finals. If Tsonga plays the way he is capable of playing, you have to give the edge to Jo Wilfred. On top of that, Mardy is just playing his first tournament since April when he had to stop playing to address his problems wit the arrythmias. Nevertheless, Fish has picked up a little confidence and match rhythm playing his three matches and is certainly capable of holding serve on the grass. With a little bit of good fortune, Mardy could easily be facing a fellow American in the quarterfinals for a spot in the semis. Well, perhaps not easily.

And for Brian Baker, this unbelievable journey has to have producers in Hollywood wondering who they will get to play the tall Tennessean in the movie! The 27-year old is playing the best tennis of his life after dropping completely off the grid for nearly 3 years. He has a beautiful game and shows the incredible disdain for pressure that could only be possessed by someone who has endured so many terrible twists of fate that have included, for Brian, 3 hip surgeries and a sports hernia and a Tommy John surgery for his elbow. From a technical point of view he has an ideal game for grass with a good serve, great variety and a front court game that reminds us of players of the past that played the majority of their service points from inside the service line. He had to come through qualifying and has won 6 matches in a row, gaining confidence on the grass with every match. It would be such a fairy tale if he were to reach the semifinals, but he stands a very good chance against Kohlschreiber, who is a very good volleyer, but only a 50/50 bet against the sizzling Baker who is remembering the days when he was a finalist at Junior Roland Garros, a winner of the Orange Bowl and the number 2 junior in the world, before it was all swept away from him so cruelly by injury after injury. And if he gets there, he can hold against Fish or Tsonga; but just to get to the quarters a year after having no points is such an incredible feat! I doubt it has been done in the last 30 years.

As for the other round of 16s men’s matches, I don’t see much trouble for Djokovic, Federer or Murray. Djokovic has to be careful playing his Serb Davis cup partner as familiarity often breeds contempt; but I don’t really see Novak having trouble with Troicki. Malisse will play an attractive match against Federer with some tremendous shot making, but I can not see Xavier really challenging the Swiss master. Perhaps Murray faces the toughest test in Cilic, but Marin could be a little diminished by the exertion it took him to oust Querry 17-15 in the fifth in the second longest match in the history of Wimbledon at 5 hours and 31 minutes.

In the other three matches, Gasquet figures to have a clear edge on the grass against Mayer. He’s beaten the German on clay and hard courts in the last 12 months and holds a 3-1 edge over him going back to 2004. However, Richard is always capable of giving us surprising results, both up and down. And every once in a while, the 6-3 Bayreuth native, Mayer, has been able to come up with the goods and pull off an unexpected upset.

As for the intramural match between Russians Istomin and Youzhny, I like Mikhail. He has a really beautiful game and attitude. Istomin is younger and bigger, but Russians respect seniority and Youzhny played well at Halle. In any case, neither will pose much trouble for Federer in the quarterfinals. Likewise with Mayer or Gasquet against Djokovic. We’ve waited and waited…and waited for Gasquet to break through at a slam. His best result was at Wimbledon 6 years ago, but I believe that is his only Grand Slam effort beyond the quarterfinals.

The final match to examine of tomorrow’s 8 men’s matches stands the best chance to deliver a really great tennis match. Ferrer holds a 4-2 edge on Del Potro and has won 8 matches in a row since losing to Nadal in the semis of Roland Garros. Del Potro has played well all year, but he has yet to exhibit the consistent high level that won him the 2009 US Open. Either man will probably fall in the quarters to Murray. Either of them will make it interesting, but I do think they will lose to Murray. By the semis, the pressure figures to add a little heft to Murray’s burden, but I think he should handle it against either of these two; and against Fish or Baker as well. However, if he plays well, Tsonga can beat anyone, but it is asking a lot to hold that level above what you are used to for five sets. Djokovic, Federer and Nadal have shown they can do that; it remains to be seen if anyone else has that ability as well.

In any case, it should be a great day of tennis!

10sChiro
PS The latest standings in 10sChiro’s Post US Open Performance Measure will be up before the end of the week. I promise!

to see other articles by 10sChiro, go to
https://archive.10sballs.com/category/columnists/dr-chiro/
or
https://archive.10sballs.com/author/don/

If you want more information about lessons with TennisChiro or his videotaping and analysis service, contact him atdonbrosseau@earthlink.net. This summer he will be the Head Pro at the Buckskill Tennis Club in Easthampton, NY. (buckskilltennis.com)

Topics: 10sballs.com, Cilic, djokovic, Federer, Gasquet, Istomin, Malisse, Marin, Mayer, Murray, Sports, Tennis News, Wimbledon, Youzhny