Is There a New Sheriff in Town? Rafa says no, but …

Written by: Tennischiro on 4th June 2012

Is There a New Sheriff in Town? Rafa says no, but …

epa03249093 Rafael Nadal of Spain returns to Juan Monaco of Argentina during their round of 16 match for the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, 04 June 2012. EPA/YOAN VALAT |

How predictable are the results on red clay? At least for the men? Based on the rankings including the results of the fourth round matches, the top 6 players as well as the 9th and 11th ranked players in the world are all in the quarterfinals. Del Potro upset the higher ranked Berdych and Almagro defeated the higher ranked Tipsarevic. But in a testament to the depth of the men’s game, Monaco was the only other member of the second eight seeds to make it to the round of 16 along with Del Potro and Almagro.

1    Djokovic, Novak (SRB)     11,800
2    Nadal, Rafael (ESP)     10,060
3    Federer, Roger (SUI)     9,790
4    Murray, Andy (GBR)     7,500

5    Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA)     4,965    +270    =    5235    5th
6    Ferrer, David (ESP)     4,640    +180    =    4820    6th
7    Berdych, Tomas (CZE)     4,515    +170    =    4685    7th
8    Tipsarevic, Janko (SRB)     3,110    +90    =    3200    8th
9    Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG)    2,910    +270    =    3180    9th
10    Fish, Mardy (USA)     2,625    -90    =    2535    12th
11    Isner, John (USA)     2,620    +35    =    2655    10th
12    Simon, Gilles (FRA)     2,615    -90    =    2525    13th
13    Almagro, Nicolas (ESP)    2,255    +350    =    2605    11th

Don’t get me wrong. There has been some great tennis, but the practice of seeding one of every four players keeps the upsets to a minimum. But this is the second week. Although the top four are favorites, even Murray if his back is 100%, they are no longer playing someone who is ranked at least outside the top 16 until the fourth round and outside the top 8 in the fourth round. I would like to see a little more action.

My suggestion would be to seed the top 4 as is already done and then the next four are all seeded 5th. Then I would take everyone from #9 to #32 and treat them randomly, effectively seeding them all 9th. The argument against this is that the draw could become unbalanced and you don’t adequately reward the 14th or 15th ranked player in the world for having a better season than the 17th or 18th ranked player. For those of you that don’t understand, being seeded in the top 16 means that you can’t run into another player seeded in the top 16 until the 4th round. And the 32nd seeded player can’t run into anyone in the top 32 until the second round, … and so on. As it is now, I think it’s too predictable. Sure there is a mathematical possibility that the #9 through 14 ranked players could all end up in one quarter of the draw with two players in that quarter from the top 8; but what good matches that would make. I believe they used to seed just 16 and that gave us some more interesting early rounds for the top players.

In any case, pretty much who is supposed to be in the quarters made it. Del Potro took his spot from Berdych. Almagro took his spot from Tipsarevic. Tsonga earned his way into the quarters with a massive win against Wawrinka over two days. Djokovic, Federer and Murray all dropped sets and Nole was even down two sets to love against Seppi. Murray says he actually considered withdrawing in his match with Nieminen, but he crushed the life out of Gasquet in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th sets Monday after a slow start.

In the meantime, the three Spaniards, Nadal, Ferrer and Almagro are 36-0 in sets so far. Nadal has looked so good that he is threatening Borg’s record for games lost in winning the French. But I say it doesn’t count until he plays the players at his level; players who can handle his pace and push him back where he will struggle to stay as aggressive as he has been so far. And there are only a handful that can do that; maybe Almagro, but I doubt it. Physically Ferrer can do it, but mentally he has to convince himself that he believes that. Before Ferrer can face that test he has to deal with Andy Murray. If Murray’s back holds up, he definitely has more weapons and is just as steady as Ferrer on his good days; but Murray is known to have his bad days. That rarely happens to Ferrer. If he’s 100%, Murray stands the best chance of derailing the Nadal Express before the final; but I don’t think his can manage the stress of 3 1/2 hours with Ferrer followed by at least that with Nadal.

On the other side of the draw, Djokovic and Federer will be the beneficiaries of an extra day of rest before the semis (if it doesn’t rain). Nole must deal with Tsonga and he is just too steady and sound for the Frechman. That being said, if Jo-Wilfred plays his best for full match, his weapons make him a threat to beat anyone, even when they are playing their best. Wouldn’t that be something to see! In the other quarter, Federer keeps paying Del Potro back for that upset in the US Open finals in 2009 and I don’t think he is about to stop reminding him of that match. Del Potro has the only slam not won by the top three the last few years and he will not be kept out of the top 4 much longer. He seems to gradually get better and better and he will be more than a handful for Federer today. Fed says he has no pain and the tournament barely starts for him before the second week so you can’t put too much weight on the sets he has dropped to opponents whose names aren’t often on the winning sides of sets with the likes of Federer (but remember Goffin; he’ll be back!)

Then we get to the semi. I’m pulling for Fed, so I hope Tsonga upsets Djoker. No, that’s not right. I want to see the very best tennis and that has to be Djokovic vs Federer in the semis and a healthy Murray against Rafa on the other side. Ultimately, I think Djokovic will benefit from the extra day of rest between quarters and semis and have an easier recovery from playing Federer than Nadal will from playing Murray.Probably Djokovic is the only one who can consistently hurt Rafa with his return and knock him back on his heels where he won’t be able to play the aggressive game he has been parading around Roland Garros the last 4 matches. I would love to see Roger catch fire with his backhand for 3 days and usurp Djokovic and Nadal with a style that harkens to yesteryear and includes more than the occasional visit to the forecourt. I remember yesteryear. I grew up watching The Lone Ranger, Rin Tin Tin, Wanted: Dead or Alive and Have Gun Will Travel. I think I even met Hopalong Cassidy in Honolulu when I was a kid. But that was yesteryear. This year it will be a new French champion.

10sChiro

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If you want more information about lessons with TennisChiro or his videotaping and analysis service, contact him atdonbrosseau@earthlink.net. This summer he will be the Head Pro at the Buckskill Tennis Club in Easthampton, NY. (buckskilltennis.com)

Topics: 10sballs.com, Andy Murray, clay court tennis, French Open 2012, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Roland Garros