Djokovic and Nadal are tied but Still Over 1700 Points behind Federer

Written by: Tennischiro on 29th May 2012

Djokovic and Nadal are tied but Still Over 1700 Points behind Federer |

The French Open is now into it’s third day and no great surprises so far. The draw sets up really well for the favorites. This first week is all about the side stories away from the top 8 seeds, at least on the men’s side. The biggest news was the withdrawal of a couple of players, Fish and Monfils. Roddick losing early on the red clay is not that surprising. I really doubt there will be an American man left by the third round unless Isner can find his Davis Cup form. He’s got to play better to get past Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu.

The best story has to be young Brian Baker. I met Brian 9 years ago when an investment banker invited the then teenager from his hometown to be his partner in the Huggy Bears. He struggled for a couple of years and then disappeared from the pro scene as he went through an agonizing series of injuries He qualified for Roland Garros this year by winning the USTA’s wild card with his performance in the USA challengers this spring. So instead of playing qualifying for the French last week, he got to play qualifying for the $250K Nice warm-up tournament. He qualified by beating 3 players who all would have been ranked well above him until April 23 when he finally got his singles ranking back down in the top 300. He had been ranked in the second hundred from August 2004 to November 2005, but never above 172. Once in the main draw of the Nice tournament, he took on almost the entire former Soviet bloc, beating Sergiy Stakhovsky (#84 from the Ukraine), Mikhail Kukushkin (#55 from Kazakhstan) and Nicolai Davydenko (#53 from Russia); for good measure as a guest in France, he knocked off #13 Gael Monfils including winning a second set (11-9) tiebreaker. The prize money, points and everything else were almost an order of magnitude greater than what he’d been playing for just a couple of months before. And he was winning! He moved his ranking up to a new high for him of 141. Then the young man from Nashville topped it off by coolly dispatching Xavier Malisse in straight sets in his first round match today. I watched parts of the match on LiveScoreHunter.com and thought Brian looked very comfortable on the red clay. Whether he has big enough weapons to get into the top 50 in the world remains to be seen, but, and this has to be if his body holds together, I do see him taking a comfortable position in the top 100 for the next couple of years. Just look at his playing activity on the ATP site (http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Ba/B/Brian-Baker.aspx?t=pa) and you’ll immediately understand the supreme effort he is making to stay calm in the midst of all his sudden success. You have to like his attitude and maturity on the court. I certainly do. I also like the complete nature of his game. He moves around the court very well almost hiding the fact that he is a full 6′ 3″ tall. He’s dangerous.

For all that, I don’t think there will be many upsets of the top 8, certainly not of the top 3 this week. The draw sets up very well for Djokovic, Nadal and Federer to make it to the semis. Verdasco could cause a little trouble for Djokovic in the 16’s, but that’s unlikely. Tsonga will have difficulty fulfilling his seeding on this surface, particularly with the challenge of Simon or Wawrinka in the 16’s if he can get there. Federer should have smooth sailing until his quarterfinal match against the winner of the Del Potro/Berdych match.

In the bottom half, if Murray really has a bad back, he will have trouble getting past Andreev or Nieminen in the second round. Then Gasquet is a favorite against an ailing Murray in the 16’s and no way he gets past Ferrer. He is 50/50 against Ferrer on the dirt at his best. I think Ferrer will cruise to the semis. The wild card is if Isner starts hitting returns like he did in Davis Cup; it’s a given that he has to serve great, but that is not enough. Youzhny is always capable of an upset and Dolgopolov will be exciting to watch somewhere along the way, but it’s Ferrer in the semis. And his opponent will undoubtedly by Rafa who will push aside Monaco and then Almagro rather disdainfully.

It shapes up as a great week next week, but this week … not so much. The only American left in the field next week will probably be Serena Williams and maybe Venus. The American girls had a great first 2 days, but let’s see how many are still around on Saturday. If Serena is healthy, that could be very interesting, regardless of your national origin. She challenges those girls ranked ahead of her to play their best when she is fit. As for the rest, any predictions I make about the women seems to be the kiss of death. And I actually like some of the women I pick, so I’m keeping that to myself!

I also promised to keep you updated on the progress of “10sChiro’s Post US Open Performance Measure”. Nadal’s victory in Rome brought him even with Djokovic, but still 1745 points behind Federer. Remember, this measure is through the year that ends with the US Open finals! Fed probably needs at least 2 or 3 finals, but more likely one victory in the next 3 slams to overtake Djokovic. Unless Rafa or Nole stumbles somewhere along the way. And, of course, he mustn’t either. Here’s the latest:

0sChiro’s Post US Open Performance Measure Points Breakdown

After Madrid

1. Roger Federer 6865 (3000 in post US Open 2011 + 3865 in 2012)

2. Novak Djokovic 4880 ( 560 in post US Open 2011 + 4320 in 2012)

3. Rafael Nadal 4480 ( 730 in post US Open 2011 + 3750 in 2012)

4. Andy Murray 4080 (1930 in post US Open 2011 + 2150 in 2012)

5. David Ferrer 3830 (1610 in post US Open 2011 + 2220 in 2012)

10sChiro’s Post US Open Performance Measure Points Breakdown

After Rome

1. Roger Federer 7225 (3000 in post US Open 2011 + 3865 +360 in 2012)

2. Novak Djokovic 5480 ( 560 in post US Open 2011 + 4320 +600 in 2012)

3. Rafael Nadal 5480 ( 730 in post US Open 2011 + 3750 +1000 in 2012)

4. David Ferrer 4190 (1610 in post US Open 2011 + 2220 +360 in 2012)

5. Andy Murray 4170 (1930 in post US Open 2011 + 2150 +90 in 2012)

Current ATP 52 week rankings (5/28/12):

1. Novak Djokovic 11,800

2. Rafael Nadal 10,060

3. Roger Federer 9,790

4. Andy Murray 7,500

5. Jo-Wilfred Tsonga 4,965

6. David Ferrer 4,640

7. Tomas Berdych 4,515

8. Janko Tipsarevic 3,110

9. JM Del Potro 2,910

10sChiro

to see other articles by 10sChiro, go to

https://archive.10sballs.com/category/columnists/dr-chiro/

https://archive.10sballs.com/author/don/

If you want more information about lessons with TennisChiro or his videotaping and analysis service, contact him at donbrosseau@earthlink.net. This summer he will be the Head Pro at the Buckskill Tennis Club in Easthampton, NY. (buckskilltennis.com)

Topics: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer

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