Do You Like to Play What If Roger…

Written by: Tennischiro on 19th May 2012

Do You Like to Play What If Roger…

epa03221340 Swiss tennis player Roger Federer serves the ball to Argentina's Carlos Berlocq during their second round match at the Italian Open tennis tournament at the Foro Italico in Rome, Italy, 16 May 2012. Federer won 6-3 and 6-4. EPA/CLAUDIO ONORATI |

Almost everyone likes to imagine their favorite team or their favorite player winning. As tennis fans we want to see our favorite players win the Slams and the Masters1000s(men) or Premier(women) events and this year, the Olympics. If you are a Djokovic fan, you are pulling for him to win a 4th Major in a row at Roland Garros and become the first man to hold all four titles since Rod Laver’s second Grand Slam in 1969. Better yet, you are probably pulling for him to keep his streak in Majors going right through the US Open and even add a win in the Olympics which would give him the only men’s “Golden Slam” in history, winning all four Majors and the Olympics in a single calendar year (Steffi Graf pulled off that feat in 1988 and she is the only person ever to do it.) But I think the vast majority of serious tennis fans are pulling for something else, especially after the results in Madrid last weekend.

If you were ever enchanted by the grace and beauty of a Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers dance number; if you were ever transported to a distant land by the majesty of a John Williams overture; if you were ever astounded by the Grammy winning performance of octogenarian pianist Vladimir Horowitz; if you appreciated the raw speed of Cassius Clay; if you were ever transfixed by the subtle intellectual twists and turns of a Rod Serling screenplay; if you felt goosebumps up and down your spine the first time you heard Whitney Houston’s tremolo as she sings “I Will Always Love You”; if you can grasp the magnitude of Oscar Robertson averaging a “triple-double” for four consecutive years; if you can appreciate Ted Williams batting .388 at age 40; geez, if you even know half the names I’m bringing up here (kids, you really should Google them; and you already know who John Williams is, even if not by name)… then there is a better than 50% chance that you are pulling for Roger Federer to reclaim the number one ranking.

Roger is just one week short of tying Pete Sampras’s 286 weeks ranked in the top spot. If you went back just 6 months with the Swiss magician presumably still recovering from a 5th set loss to Djokovic at the US Open in which the Serb escaped double-match point on Federer’s serve, no one was even thinking about the possibility of Federer recapturing number one; well, perhaps there was one person. In fact, there were some who were calling on him to retire before he “embarrassed” himself. But he went on a tear in the last six months, winning 3 of 5 ATP1000s, the ATP World Tour Finals and 3 additional ATP500s. Despite a tough semifinal loss to Nadal at the Australian, he is within hailing distance of Djokovic in the Year-to-Date Race To London, trailing by just 455 points. If we measured performances for the 8 months since that psychologically devastating loss at the US Open, Federer’s deficit in the Year-to-Date Race to Djokovic would turn into a lead of 1985 points. And Nadal would be even further behind.

Breakdown of the Post US Open 2011 Results

In the weeks following the US Open in 2011, Djokovic earned just 560 points, Nadal just 730 including the Davis Cup semifinals, but Federer earned 3000. Nadal’s 150 points for the Davis Cup finals are included in his 2012 Year-to-Date Race points total. Davis Cup results are a little confusing. They award 40 points for first round wins, 65 points for quarterfinal wins, 70 points for semifinal wins and 75 points for finals wins. By my reckoning, Ferrer has won 7 matches in the last 12 months, but I think they only count one quarterfinal round of matches in the annual ranking calculation. The 2012 South African Airways Year-to-Date Race to London totals for the top three are Djokovic-4320, Federer-3865, Nadal-3750. Andy Murray picked up 1930 points in 2011 after the US Open with his three victories on the Asian circuit and he would jump David Ferrer by 250 points in this post-US Open performance measure.

10sChiro’s Post US Open Performance Measure Points Breakdown

1. Roger Federer 6865 (3000 in post US Open 2011 + 3865 in 2012)

2. Novak Djokovic 4880 ( 560 in post US Open 2011 + 4320 in 2012)

3. Rafael Nadal 4480 ( 730 in post US Open 2011 + 3750 in 2012)

4. Andy Murray 4080 (1930 in post US Open 2011 + 2150 in 2012)

5. David Ferrer 3830 (1610 in post US Open 2011 + 2220 in 2012)

Roger’s win at Madrid last week thrust him ahead of Rafael Nadal into 2nd place in the South African Airways ATP Rankings, both for the last 52 weeks and for the year to date. True, he is a slim 325 points ahead of Nadal in the year-long rankings and a Nadal victory in Rome will put him back in 2nd regardless of how far Roger goes in Rome. Djokovic seems somewhat less invincible than he did the first 9 months of last year with critical loses to Isner at Indian Wells and Tipsarevic last week. (Reaching the finals of Monte Carlo the week his grandfather died has to be considered a heroic effort.) Novak still holds a 1770 point lead over Federer and you would think he has the most points to defend, but it is actually Nadal who has a the most to defend in the next 8 weeks including Roland Garros and Wimbledon. The reports from Daily Tennis bring you up-to-date rankings moves on a match by match basis. But I want to emphasize what is at stake each week for these top players. In particular, I want to play the “what if” game to see how Roger Federer can recapture the top ranking. I hope he decides to play in Rome. I’m writing this Tuesday night and there is still some question as to whether Federer will show for his 2nd-match-on-after-12 appointment with Carlos Berlocq Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, I don’t want to see him jeopardize the opportunity that lays before him by overplaying. There are two Majors coming up quickly and he must maintain the focus on preparing for those events.

Clearly, what few imagined was even possible after that US Open loss, is definitely within reach, if not in the next 8 weeks, certainly over the next 17 weeks until the US Open ends on September 9. While Roger may be a little beat up by his long final with Berdych in Madrid, his physicality seems very much intact and his level of confidence and match toughness seems to be growing with every victory. He will not win every match from here to the US Open, but it’s not necessary for him to retake the top spot in the rankings. A good combination of wins, finals and semifinals that keeps him just within 1984 points of Novak Djokovic or 2384 points of Rafael Nadal through the US Open will earn him the number one ranking, and probably for more than one week. The indoor season could correctly be considered Roger’s best season, but with an additional 800 point opportunity on grass in the Olympics, the next four months should be a great time for Roger. The way he has been playing more aggressively with his backhand and moving forward into the court at every opportunity sets him up even better than usual for an expanded grass court season.

Surely, winning Majors comes first. But for him to accomplish the recapture of the number one ranking at this time in his career would be awesome. I trust Annacone will keep Roger focused on the important goals and not let him get too greedy in the pursuit of the “damn points”. He must stick to his disciplined approach, only playing events that allow his body enough time to recover and be the most durable player in the history of the modern game. His ability to maintain his mental and psychological enthusiasm is just as important as his physical recovery from all the little aches and pains that come with so many matches. One could really question if there was something more to the Men In Black III suit Will Smith presented to Roger after the Madrid final. I was thinking Roger should have asked if it came with a “neuralizer”, but he already has tools he uses to erase all the bad memories: a positive attitude and an infinite work ethic.

************************************

Just so you can play the “what if” game the next few weeks, here are the tournaments the top three will be involved in over the next 8 weeks, as well as the points they are defending and the points that are available in each of these events.

Rome

No points to defend. They are already off the computer.

Winner-1000; Runner-Up-600; Semifinalist-360; 1/4’s-180; 16’s-90; 32’s-45; 64’s-10

After an off week for these three,

Roland Garros

Points to Defend: Djokovic-720; Federer-1200; Nadal-2000

Winner-2000; RUp-1200; Semis-720; 1/4s-360; 16s-180; 32s-90; 64s-45; 128-10

Halle (all three are entered in Halle at this time)

Points to Defend: Just Nadal with 45 from Queens

Winner-250; RU-150: Semis-90; 1/4s-45; 16s-20; 32s-0

Wimbledon

Points to Defend: Djokovic-2000; Federer-360; Nadal-1200

Winner-2000; RUp-1200; Semis-720; 1/4s-360; 16s-180; 32s-90; 64s-45; 128-10

In total, the maximum available is 5250 points. Djokovic has 2720 to defend. Nadal 3245 to defend. And Federer with his off year at Wimbledon last year as well as missing Halle, one of his favorites, has just 1560 points to defend. Murray won Queens last year and with his semis at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, has 1690 points to defend. Ferrer has just 360 points to defend with 16s at RG and Wimby and should move up in the 52 week rankings. Tsonga has 960 to defend. Berdych just 190.

I don’t know why the ATP hasn’t played up this contest more than they have. This could be one of the most exciting races in years. First, to see if Roger can get back to number one and second, to see who can earn the ultimate number one ranking for the year. We will keep you posted periodically here on 10sBalls.com

10sChiro’s Post US Open Performance Measure Points Breakdown

Just to repeat, here it is

1. Roger Federer 6865 (3000 in post US Open 2011 + 3865 in 2012)

2. Novak Djokovic 4880 ( 560 in post US Open 2011 + 4320 in 2012)

3. Rafael Nadal 4480 ( 730 in post US Open 2011 + 3750 in 2012)

4. Andy Murray 4080 (1930 in post US Open 2011 + 2150 in 2012)

5. David Ferrer 3830 (1610 in post US Open 2011 + 2220 in 2012)

If Roger can just stay close in the next few weeks before Wimbledon…

10sChiro

to see other articles by 10sChiro, go to

https://archive.10sballs.com/category/columnists/dr-chiro/

https://archive.10sballs.com/author/don/

If you want more information about lessons with TennisChiro or his videotaping and analysis service, contact him at donbrosseau@earthlink.net. This summer he will be the Head Pro at the Buckskill Tennis Club in Easthampton, NY.

Topics: 10sballs.com, 10sChiro, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Olympics, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Sports, Tennis News

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