How Do You Look at the Draws!? – BNP Paribas Indian Wells

Written by: Tennischiro on 7th March 2012

How Do You Look at the Draws!? - BNP Paribas Indian Wells

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Okay, the men’s singles draw came out yesterday and the women have actually already started their main draw matches today. 96 players in each field. How do you make sense of it?

Well, the seeded players, 32 in each draw, all got first round byes so none of them will play until the second day of their respective tournaments. It’s an 11 or 12 day tournament and not enough days to give the players a full day’s rest between matches with a 128 draw. But it is only 2 out of 3 sets with tie-breakers in all sets so there is not much chance of any 4 or 5 hour matches; however, the way the schedule works out one of the men’s finalists will come into the final playing Friday and Saturday before that Sunday final.

We want to figure out what to watch, either in person or on broadcast TV or online. The first thing to check is the “floaters”. The draw is set up so the highest 4 ranked players are in different quarters, so the highest 8 can reach the quarters, etc down to the top 32 don’t run into each other until the round of 32. Good players ranked below the top 32 are considered “floaters”. The men’s draw has all 32 of the top 33 players in the world (everyone except Soderling). The women’s draw has 32 of the top 34; just Petkovic and Serena Williams are missing. You’d have to say Venus and Clijsters are also missing although their rankings are currently outside the top 32; otherwise they would be the top “floaters”. So who are the men ranked outside the top 33 right now; especially those who are playing well or who have good records on hardcourts. Among the women, I’d be hard pressed to pick them out except for the players who are winning the last couple of weeks. I’ll give you my breakdown on the men’s draw below with the women’s to follow later.

If you look at this week’s men’s ranking lists (which determine the seeding, but not the direct acceptances which were made a few weeks ago), you see that players just outside the top 33 who have to be considered serious threats for at least a possible upset or two include Youzhny, Tomic, Llodra, Karlovic (always dangerous on hard courts), Davydenko and Baghdatis. The women’s draw was done earlier and used last week’s rankings; right away we can see that Sara Errani who just won Acapulco is a dangerous “floater”. After Sara, no one else made a tremendous move (outside the seeded players) last week, but I would be aware of Shahar Peer at #40 and further down, Morita, Date-Krumm and Mattek-Sands, but Errani is the one who is making a move. To understand the strength of these draws, just look at the acceptance lists. The men’s field of 96 includes 5 wild cards and 12 qualifiers for a total of 79 direct acceptances and the last direct acceptance was ranked 89 at the time. In the women’s draw, there are 8 wild cards and 12 qualifiers for a total of 76 direct acceptances and Date-Krumm was last in at #79. That means there was only one player missing ahead of her besides Petkovic and Serena. I think that is Clijsters. Evidently, there are a few more injuries for the men right now. In any case, that is a pretty good showing.

So now as we look at the actual draw sheets and pairings, we will focus on the round of 32 where these seeded players will meet in third round matches next Monday and Tuesday. We can peek a little beyond that, but that is my first concern when I look at these draws (besides which side of the draw the #3 and #4 seeds ended up on).

Men’s Draw First Quarter, Round of 32 Matches, assuming fulfilled seedings

Djokovic/Anderson. Just won Delray Beach but Nole will bring him down to earth if Kohlschreiber doesn’t do it sooner.

Mayer/Gasquet. Should be Gasquet.

Almagro/Nishikori. This should be a good match. Slight edge to Almagro. Americans Querry and Sock are looking for upsets earlier.

Roddick/Berdych. Roddick had his fun this week in MSG with Federer, but he will have to play well to just reach Berdych facing Karlovic or Kubot in the second round.

Djokovic should reach the semis without dropping a set. Probably the most dangerous player here is Nishikori, but he is going to have to improve a lot on his recent showings. I don’t think Berdych serves quite as well outdoors and he could be vulnerable here.

Men’s Draw Second Quarter, Round of 32 Matches, assuming fulfilled seedings

Murray/Troicki. Harrison has a chance to get through against Troicki, but Murray comes through without a scratch.

Wawrinka/Simon. Sela just did well in Delray Beach and he could upset Simon, but Simon/Wawrinka should be a very good match.

Isner/Monaco. Gotta like Isner, but how much has Charlie slowed down the courts this year. That could help Monaco.

Benneteau/Fish. Fish gets another good draw. He needs to put some points up here.

Wawrinka got a little confidence back last week, but it’s not enough against Murray. Fish/Isner is an interesting match and Fish has had a lot of success in Indian Wells; and some success with Murray (4-4)

Men’s Draw Third Quarter, Round of 32 Matches, assuming fulfilled seedings

Ferrer/Chela. You have to figure Ferrer has this under control. Dark horse is Dimitrov from whom many have been expecting a lot more.

Verdasco/Del Potro. This could be one of the best early matches of the tournament. It might be fun to watch Sweeting play Fernando. Verdasco doesn’t always take enough advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses and usually just manhandles them into submission. If Ryan’s serve doesn’t let him down, he is not easily overpowered.

Monfils/Melzer. First of all, how healthy is Monfils. What happened to the guy we saw early in the year in Doha beating Nadal? That guy can beat anyone, at least in 2/3 sets. Melzer won Memphis and derailed Raonic. They’ll have to deal with a little resistance from Davydenko and Bellucci, but they probably will meet. Good match.

Raonic/Federer. The two guys atop the serving statistics. But Raonic is not close to Federer in the return department. But in 2/3 sets, he has a chance.

This is an exciting quarter. Del Potro and Ferrer will fight it out for that top spot behind the “Top 4″. Then the winner gets to go up against Federer. If Federer ends up putting down Del Potro again in straights, it is going to start to get into the big Argentine’s head. It could also catapult Federer into the match he wants with Nadal in the semis. Raonic will have a little to say about all that, but he just doesn’t have a loud enough voice to be heard in this conversation just yet. Still, … fun to watch!

Men’s Draw Fourth Quarter, Round of 32 Matches, assuming fulfilled seedings

Tsonga/Stepanek. Interesting match, but they will have challenges right from the second round. Tsonga plays the winner of Marseille finalist Llodra and Gulbis. Malisse is lurking for Stapanek. A lot of serve-and-volley talent in this little section. Tsonga should come through, but I really thought he looked crushed at the end of his loss in Dubai to Del Potro, his second defeat at the hands of the Argentine in 2 weeks. I’ll be looking to see if he has his fire back. He’ll need it for these players.

Cilic/Tipsarevic. Ah, the Balkans; a Serb and a Croat. Not to mention Nalbandian right away for Cilic and Tomic for Tipsarevic. Cilic had Tipsarevic’s spot just outside the top 8 and then fell out of the top 20 about 14 months ago. He’s only 23 and beat Janko in the finals of St. Petersburg just a few months ago, but he has played only one match in 2012 losing first round last week to Nieminen.

Lopez/Dolgopolov. Baghdatis could be trouble for Lopez and Young has a chance to do something in this section if he can get through Dolgopolov. I think Dolgopolov comes through, but it will be a short lived victory as the spoils will be an appointment with Mr. Nadal!

Granollers/Nadal. Haas/Niemenen is a nice first round and either could upset Granollers, who is 1/2 on hard courts this year and primarily a dirtballer. Doesn’t matter. Nadal goes right through everybody here.

I don’t see much mystery and drama in this quarter until we get to the actual quarterfinals. Tsonga will be challenged in his section, but Nadal will be just standing there waiting, saying, “Come on, guys. Vamos. Let’s get on with it.” At that point, only Tsonga stands a real chance of offering the Mallorcan a challenge.

I said my first priority was which half the #3 and a #4 seed ended up in. Unlike the NCAA basketball tournament where every position is preordained: 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, 3 vs 14, etc. A tennis draw is a true draw. #1 goes to the top and #2 goes to the bottom. Then it is a flip of the coin whether #3 goes in the top or bottom half. Then #4 goes in the remaining quarter. They do the same with 5 and 6 and again with 7 and 8; and there are actually even more flips because if 5 goes up and 1 and 3 are in the top half, it is still a coin flip as to whether that player is set to meet 1 or 3 in the quarter. Anyway, next week we have the possibility of the recreation of the Aussie Open semis with Novak playing Andy and Roger playing Rafa. Hey, we can hope. And I’m not making any picks until I see how everyone is playing this weekend, but I’m liking Roger a lot better after his recent success.

I’ll try to put up my irrelevant comments about the women’s draw a little later. There’s no point in trying to predict what the women are going to do anyway! I really wouldn’t want to be a bookie trying to make a living taking wagers on women’s tennis matches.

10sChiro

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