Women’s Look Forward: Doha, Bogota

Written by: Staff on 11th February 2012

Women's Look Forward: Doha, Bogota

Petra Kvitova of Czech Republic returns a shot during a match against Ana Ivanovic of Serbia during her fourth round women's singles match at the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 23 January 2012. EPA/AHMAD YUSNI |

The contrast is stunning. Doha, even following the withdrawal of Petra Kvitova, is so strong that, despite a 56 player draw, we have players ranked around #60 in qualifying. Bogota is so weak that they handed out seven qualifying wildcards, and even so, the top seven qualifying seeds had byes.

The one thing Doha lacks, relatively speaking, is Top Five players. In addition to the injured Kvitova, Maria Sharapova is missing. Still, world #1 Victoria Azarenka, #4 Caroline Wozniacki, and #5 Samantha Stosur are here — seeded #1, #2, and #3, obviously. There are three other Top Ten players: #4 seed Agnieszka Radwanska, #5 Marion Bartoli, and #6 Vera Zvonareva (who, however, suffered a hip injury in Pattaya City, so she is pretty dubious). Those six have first round byes, as do #7 seed Francesca Schiavone and #8 Jelena Jankovic. Li Na and Andrea Petkovic, the other Top Ten players missing, are presumably still hurting.

The lower seeds are #9 Sabine Lisicki, #10 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, #11 Dominika Cibulkova, #12 Peng Shuai, #13 Ana Ivanovic, #14 Svetlana Kuznetsova, #15 Daniela Hantuchova, and #16 Julia Goerges. So we have, in all, fifteen of the Top Twenty.

Which in turn means that a lot of the seeds could face early trouble. Azarenka is likely to have to open against fast-rising Mona Barthel. Pavlyuchenkova’s first match will be against another strong young player, Ksenia Pervak. Schiavone might face Yanina Wickmayer in her opener. Jankovic is likely to open against Shahar Peer (evidently Peer had no visa problems this time). Zvonareva will open against Elena Vesnina or Monica Niculescu. Cibulkova’s first match is against Flavia Pennetta, who just missed seeding. Lisicki opens against her countrywoman Angelique Kerber, who will be hot off the Paris final. Kuznetsova opens against Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (who, however, will be rusty), then Zheng Jie or Maria Kirilenko. And Wozniacki is likely to have to start against Lucie Safarova.

The Bogota field looks almost exactly like the Cali $100K Challenger which concludes this Sunday. There are no Top Fifty players. The top two seeds are the same: #1 Marina Erakovic and #2 Alexandra Dulgheru (the latter surely the greater threat on clay, no matter what the rankings say). Rounding out the seeds are #3 Romina Oprandi, #4 Jelena Dokic, #5 Gisela Dulko, #6 Mathilde Johansson, #7 Lourdes Dominguez Lino (the defending champion) and #8 Patricia Mayr-Achleitner. Mayr-Achleitner was #96 lat week, so the unseeded players are almost all ranked below #100. None of them are obvious threats, although in a field this weak, one of them might post a major surprise.

The Rankings

We have a bit of a schedule shift this week. Last year, there were three events, Dubai, Memphis, and Bogota. Dubai was of course the big one; Caroline Wozniacki won it, over Svetlana Kuznetsova; Jelena Jankovic and Flavia Pennetta were semifinalists, with Shahar Peer, Samantha Stosur, Agnieszka Radwanska, and Alisa Kleybanova quarterfinalists. The title at Memphis went to Magdalena Rybarikova, who won when Rebecca Marino retired in the final; Lucie Hradecka and Evgenia Rodina were semifinalists. Lourdes Dominguez Lino, who had a fine spring clay season, won Bogota, over Mathilde Johansson, with Carla Suarez Navarro and Petra Martic semifinalists.

Dominguez Lino’s Top Hundred ranking is in a lot of danger, and Rybarikova might not end up much above that mark. At the top of the rankings, though, don’t expect much movement. Victoria Azarenka is safe on top; Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova can’t catch her when they don’t play! The first player to be under some real threat is #4 Caroline Wozniacki’s, but her lead on #5 Samantha Stosur will probably hold up. The last Top Five spot, though, could go in any of several directions. Stosur just barely leads Agnieszka Radwanska, and Marion Bartoli will also have a shot — how good a shot will depend on how she does in Paris.

Andrea Petkovic’s Top Ten spot is at risk, with Francesca Schiavone the player most likely to take it from her. Svetlana Kuznetsova may well lose her Top Twenty spot.

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