Women’s Tennis Look Forward: Paris, Pattaya City

Written by: Staff on 6th February 2012

Women's Tennis Look Forward: Paris, Pattaya City

Maria Sharapova of Russia celebrates after winning a point against Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic during their women's semi final match at the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 26 January 2012. Sharapova won 6-2, 3-6 and 6-4. EPA/BARBARA WALTON |

Last year, Petra Kvitova won Paris — a result that was both a breakthrough (her first big title) and a portent. Will we have another portent this year?

One portent we have is that Kvitova will be losing points. She isn’t coming back. Maria Sharapova is the #1 seed (although she withdrew from Fed Cup with arm pain), with Marion Bartoli #2. Those two have byes. Li Na is the other Top Ten player in the field; she is seeded #3 and is in Bartoli’s half. Jelena Jankovic (who also hurt herself in Fed Cup, and faces tests on Monday to see if she will be able to play) is #4, Sabine Lisicki #5, Julia Goerges #6, Roberta Vinci #7. All of those players except Bartoli were in Fed Cup, so they may be tired. The remaining seed, #8 Anabel Medina Garrigues, is rested.

There are some pretty solid unseeded players. Sharapova might open against Polona Hercog, although Hercog looked bad in Fed Cup. Lisicki opens against Lucie Safarova; Jarmila Gajdosova might follow if she can overcome jet lag. Jankovic opens against Yanina Wickmayer — yes, the very player she was up against in Fed Cup — then Kaia Kanepi or Christina McHale. And Goerges will face Shahar Peer in the first round.

If Paris is relatively weak, Pattaya City is so weak that it ended up with only a 16-player qualifying draw rather than the usual 32. And it has some very unfamiliar players in the qualifying even so. It did snag one Top Ten player; Vera Zvonareva is the #1 seed. But it falls off fast below that. Dominika Cibulkova is #2, and defending champion Daniela Hantuchova #3; they may be on the same plane from Fed Cup. Maria Kirilenko, who like Zvonareva skipped Fed Cup, is #4, with Zheng Jie #5. Galina Voskoboeva, whose meteoric rise arguably started here last year, comes back as the #6 seed. Sorana Cirstea is #7, with Vania King #8. That means we have two seeds ranked below #50. Obviously there aren’t many strong unseeded players — although the crowds will surely be interested in the opening match between Voskoboeva and Tamarine Tanasugarn.

The Rankings

We already alluded to the fact that Petra Kvitova won Paris last year — a fact that eliminated her chance for reaching #1 this week; she has no way to add points. Indeed, since she isn’t playing and Sharapova is, we know that Kvitova will lose the #2 spot. The 2011 finalist was Kim Clijsters, whose ranking is yet again under threat. So too are the rankings of semifinalists Kaia Kanepi and Bethanie Mattek-Sands. The quarterfinalists were Jelena Dokic (as a qualifier), Dominika Cibulkova, Yanina Wickmayer, and Andrea Petkovic.

The winner at Pattaya City was Daniela Hantuchova; Sara Errani was the finalist, and Vera Zvonareva and Roberta Vinci made the semifinal.

It appears that the change at #2/#3 will be the only move in the Top Five; Victoria Azarenka will stay #1, Caroline Wozniacki #4, and Samantha Stosur #5. Agnieszka Radwanska will be #6. But Vera Zvonareva or Li Na could take the #7 ranking from Marion Bartoli; what they will need depends on how Bartoli does, but Li at least has control of her fate.

It does not appear that we will have any new faces in the Top Ten.

Since Clijsters is not playing, her ranking will fall to around #35. Hantuchova could drop a few spots but will probably stay Top 25. Sara Errani, amazingly, will fall hardly at all, but Bethanie Mattek-Sands, who is in the qualifying and at risk of not returning to the main draw, is likely to fall to around #85.