The Last Man Standing: Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal?

Written by: Tennischiro on 28th January 2012

The Last Man Standing: Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal?

epa03081603 Novak Djokovic of Serbia in play against Andy Murray of Great Britain in their men's single semi-final match at the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 27 January 2012. EPA/BARBARA WALTON |

So we are finally down to the last match! Well, actually not quite. There still is the rather significant matter of the Mixed Doubles Final three hours before the men’s final in which 10sBalls standard bearer Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Horia Tecau try to keep Leander Paes with partner Elena Vesnina from pulling off the doubles-double by adding the Mixed Doubles Championship to the Men’s Doubles Championship Leander won yesterday with Radek Stepanek, upsetting the Bryans in the final. And that is rather significant to us here at 10sBalls.com! Go Bethanie!

But once that match is in the books, there will be just two players left standing, just as they were at the last Wimbledon and US Open championships, not to mention 4 other Masters Series 1000 events. In fact, this will be the eight major championship in a row won by either Nole or Rafa. Novak picked up his 2nd, 3rd and 4th last year while Rafa won his 10th at the French last year to go with the three he won in 2010. It’s the fifth time in the last six major finals that they have both survived to this stage. That’s not quite the record set by Federer and Nadal from 2004 to 2009, but this decade is just in its third year and Nole and Rafa are just 24 and 25 years old, respectively.

But so much for the history. I hesitate to make a pick in this match because my blessing for this event seems to be as welcome as the presence of Typhoid Mary! Every player I have picked has fallen by the wayside from Fish to Tsonga to Berdych to Federer and, most recently, to Murray. As a player, you don’t want me to pick you, so I have no problem picking Djokovic!

It seems pretty straight forward. Novak has nailed Rafa in six finals in a row. Destroyed him. I’ve said Rafa had to come back this year with an improved serve and a deeper forehand and a more aggressive backhand; I didn’t see much of that until the match with Roger and I still haven’t seen any significant change in the serve; but I did see more depth on the forehand in the semis and quarters. What I didn’t see in the semis was any sign of a problem with his knee, except for the bandages. Nadal’s movement was unbelievable. His ability to come up with the goods running down impossible gets and then making even more improbable passing shots was as good or better than it has ever been. He just ripped Roger’s heart out when it seemed his head had been nearly completely cut off. And left all of us Federer fans absolutely destroyed. Again!!

On the other side of the ledger, I thought Djokovic was vulnerable with the minor hamstring pull he showed briefly against Ferrer. In his match with Murray, he masterfully channelled Ann Rice’s Lestat (Wikipedia: “his rise from humble beginnings as an impoverished aristocrat in the countryside of France to the city of Paris to become a vain and arrogant vampire”) as he seemed to rise from the dead to take down Murray in a classic despite Murray’s own miraculous resurrection from 2-5 down in the fifth. There was no sign whatsoever of any hamstring pull impeding his mobility in that match. He kept his second serve well over 100 MPH whenever he needed to. Murray’s serve is much better than Rafa’s and Rafa’s lefty serve feeds right into Novak’s devastating two-hander.

I like to try to reduce things to quantifiable measures. I have pages and pages of charts I’ve made as I’ve watched these matches. How many doubles? First serve percentages, winning percentages on second serve, unforced errors, head-to-head record. In the end, they just don’t matter with these two. If Djokovic is a vampire, then Nadal is a werewolf! It definitely will take a proverbial stake-through-the-heart to kill off either of them. I’m not sure from the Underworld series which actually prevails between those two, but I know it gets nasty! I’ll actually have to go see the 4th installment of the Underworld series, “Underworld, Awakening” to sort that out. (Actually, I’m probably going to go just to see Kate Beckinsale in those tight leathers again! Hey, I’m old, but I’m not dead!)

I think Nole is too steady and too strong for the baseline for Nadal. He has figured out how to attack Rafa’s backhand and he has the shot tolerance and patience Roger is lacking to stay with that strategy. His second serve and his serve in general gives him a significant edge against Rafa. Assume both are 100% ready to go and this will be a blood-curdling battle to the metaphorical death. Or if you like the viscous tactical and strategic brilliance of a vampire against the mind-bending, astounding animal athleticism of a werewolf. I think Djokovic wins, but I suspect this recent positive run has “awakened” that werewolf heart in Nadal and he may surprise us yet again. You have to love that “heart”. I wouldn’t mind seeing that happen at all.

10sChiro

Topics: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer