10sChiro is still taking Federer to reach the Finals

Written by: Tennischiro on 25th January 2012

10sChiro is still taking Federer to reach the Finals

Roger Federer of Switzerland celebrates after his match against Bernard Tomic of Australia in their fourth round match at Rod Laver Arena during the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 22 January 2012. EPA/JOE CASTRO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT |

Hourly Weather Forecast for Melbourne Tonight
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/ASXX0075?begHour=7&begDay=26
It will be a balmy 70 degrees, but the winds are significant. I don’t know how the cavernous Laver Arena amplifies or minimizes those winds. Certainly, it has to be different from a normal stadium. And they certainly won’t be closing the roof.

My last few notes.
https://archive.10sballs.com/author/don/
I was really glad to see that my prediction that the crowd would be a big factor was dead wrong. I overlooked the fact that the Aussies are too fair for that. I really thought the match was in Berdych’s control. But he couldn’t finish it off and Nadal got stronger and stronger as the match went on.
And Federer proved to be laser sharp against Del Potro.

Stats from the last two matches of Nadal and Federer
Rafa vs Berdych:
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day14/1504ms.html

Roger vs Del Potro:
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day14/1503ms.html

Rafa vs Lopez:
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day12/1408ms.html

Federer vs Tomic:
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day12/1406ms.html

A few more aces for Federer, but a lot higher first serve percentage for Nadal to make up for a second serve that is 10 mph slower.

Fitness:
Roger seems to be 100% although he is not serving quite as fast as usual. He’ll need to serve well tonight.
Rafa appears to be struggling just a bit on that knee. But he does seem to be hitting a little deeper with his forehand as the tournament goes on and the occasion calls for it. He’s also cultivating his forehand down the line. That could be what makes the difference.

But on balance, especially in light of the way Nadal appears to be struggling physically, I have to stay with Federer.

Gotta take a nap this evening so I can make it through what promises to be an epic. I’m exhausted from staying up past 3 the last couple of nights. Gave up after the first two sets of Nadal/Berdych, but made it all the way through Djokovic/Ferrer. Awesome hitting and running! I’m still picking Murray, but the show Nole put on last night made me think twice. I just hope his hamstring holds up. And that goes for all of them. You can’t maintain this level with injuries.

10sChiro