Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray et al in 2012 by TennisChiro

Written by: Tennischiro on 14th January 2012

Tennis Australian Open 2012 - Nadal practice

Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray et al in 2012 by TennisChiro

Spanish tennis player Rafael Nadal practices at the Rod Laver Arena ahead of the Australian Open Tennis Tournament in Melbourne, Australia, 10 January 2011. The tournament runs from January 16 until 29. EPA/JULIAN SMITH AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT |

Just 3 more days and you’ll be able to watch the 2012 season start “for real” with the broadcast of the Australian Open beginning on Sunday afternoon/evening as Melbourne is 19 hours ahead of us here in Los Angeles. The 11:00 AM start time means we will have live first round tennis in LA beginning at 4:00 PM Pacific Time. I just downloaded my Australian Open App for my iPhone and you can do the same for your Android phone or iPad as well. In addition to coverage on ESPN and ESPN2, you’ll be able to get live steaming coverage from the official website:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/index.html

In fact, there is already coverage of the qualifying matches. In addition, in the AOTV vault, you can find plenty of past matches archived and ready to be viewed at your leisure.

But the real thing starts Sunday. Let’s take a look at how the top players are lined up to begin their year.

Novak Djokovic completely ran out of gas at the end of his fabulous run last year. So far he has pronounced himself ahead of where he was physically at this time last year. Mentally, he has to be better. And he backed it up with convincing wins at the the Abu Dhabi exo sweeping aside Federer and Ferrer. He did not play any of the normal “official” tour warm-up events, but he appears ready to repeat his masterful performance of last year. If he was facing the same field as last year, he would be a heavy favorite to at least come close to what he did the first 9 months of last year. But, of course, that was last year. Everyone has gotten better. Still, he is the favorite to repeat.

Rafael Nadal appears to be hitting the ball even harder than last year and playing more aggressively. He “says” his mind is in a better place than it was after all those finals losses at the hands of Djokovic. He looks fit, but he will take more time off after the Australian for his shoulder to heal. I said towards the end of the year that I expected him to make some significant changes, especially a deeper forehand, more aggressive backhand and a bigger serve. At first glance it looks like he is hitting the backhand more aggressively and= the forehand as well. He has adopted a heavier racket to give more heft to his shots. But when I examined what he was doing as he lost to Gael Monfils in Doha, I was disappointed. The backhand is a little bigger, and the forehand is struck harder, but it is still landing at the service line; that won’t cut it. Over on Tennisplayer.net we’ve had lengthy discussions about Nadal’s serve and the difference in 2010 when he won the US Open and served almost 15 mph faster than this last year and previous to 2010. (You can see that discussion at

http://www.tennisplayer.net/bulletin/showthread.php?t=1971

but you will need to join the website and it is a subscription site. I highly recommend it. At least give it a try for a month. But if you want to see the video that tells the story about the effort to change Rafa’s serve in 2010 you can just go to this link:

http://tpatennis.net/the-truth-behind-nadals-improved-serve-it-wasnt-just-a-grip-change/).

I don’t think a little weight in Rafa’s racket is going to make that much difference. He needs to go back to what he was doing at the 2010 US Open and I don’t see any sign that he is doing that. I don’t think that has much to do with his injured shoulder. There is a real difference in the mechanics he is employing and, apparently, he is reluctant to go back to the motion that served him so well in 2010. I think the big boys have gotten wise to his high bouncing balls to their backhands and have learned to stripe it down the line for commanding position if not outright winners. If he doesn’t address the serve and the short forehands, I think he will be pushed out of the top 4 before the end of the summer.

Roger Federer gave his fans great hope for his return to the top position in the rankings with his great finish to 2011, winning his last 17 matches; he was also demonstrating some of the steely focus that seemed so often absent in the frustrating losses he was experiencing the last 2 years. He seemed to be transforming to a more aggressive player who was taking control of the point and moving forward much more often, attacking his backhand as never before. But for him to be able to do that, he has to be 100%. If the back injury that forced him to default in a tournament for only the second time in his career is more than a minor transitory problem, we are unlikely to see Fed reclaim the top ranking. His game relies on speed, flexibility, intuition, ingenuity and imagination, and his ability to take time away from his opponents. If his speed and flexibility are compromised even 5 or 10%, he will not be able to work his magic against Djokovic, Nadal, Murray or even Tsonga. On the other hand, we know he will be getting the best possible help in Oz (they have lots of great chiropractors as well as excellent physical therapists !) and he has proven to be extremely resilient over the years. He had Djokovic in that US Open semi and Novak wriggled off the hook. He will hold the “Joker” to a higher standard next time around. I’m dying to see how it plays out, … if Roger is healthy.

Andy Murray is the real question mark for me. He showed so much in his three tournament winning streak in Asia in the fall. Then he gave in to injuries at the year-end championships. To me, if he follows through mentally and psychologically on the promise he showed on that streak, he is the one player who can leapfrog all the rest and take over that number one position. Having Lendl in his corner could be the little bit extra to help him find the key to unlock all that potential. Frankly, there is no way of knowing what effect Lendl will have, except to say Andy does not need much. He has proven to be as good as anyone as a defensive player over the last couple of years. In that Asia swing, he showcased a player capable of bringing offense to the fore (losing just 4 points in one set against Nadal!). Lendl transformed the modern game not only with his professional no-holds-barred approach to fitness and maximizing his performance, but also in the way he ferociously attacked the ball at every opportunity. Murray has shown too much reluctance to “Let the dogs out!” in the past. If Andy can stay healthy and be just that little bit more aggressive in his tactical and strategic approach against his rivals, I think he will be the new king of the hill.

The French

Jo-Wilfred Tsonga has beaten everyone the last 2 months except for losing to Fed on three successive Sundays. He won Brisbane in convincing fashion over Monfils after Gael put on a week-long display of pure athleticism that no one in the game can match. A few weeks ago, I saw someone note here that this could be the year of the French. These two plus Gasquet will make them very tough in Davis Cup as well as at the Olympics. Jo-Wilfred appears to have actually begun the metamorphosis into a mature player who can hold it together through the long stretch of sustained pressure presented by a two-week, 7 match major. Unfortunately, Monfils shows very little evidence of that happening for him. His talent is incredible and his shot-making is absolutely jaw-dropping; but sustained focus and intensity just don’t seem to belong in the same sentence with him.

The rest of the top 10.

Berdych gets a little better every year and he will almost definitely make a move on the top 5. In London, he had long stretches where he looked like he might challenge the very best, but as long as the forehand breaks down for no other reason than the self-generated pressure of the occasion or the moment, he will be limited in how far he can go. Sure, he has some limitations in movement compared to the top 5, but his weapons are so big he can compete with anyone. But as long as he has that Achilles heel with regard to pressure situations, he is going to find life very frustrating near the top.

Ferrer continues to be very tough to beat. But he is not really changing anything in his game and he is not getting any younger. I don’t think he will be able to hold onto that spot at number 5 more than a couple of more months. By the end of the year, he will be struggling to stay in the top 10. Nevertheless, he is a great player and a wonderful role model for what can be done with hard work. Very hard work!

Fish, Tipsarevic, Almagro, and Del Potro round out the top 11 with Soderling and his glandular fever just behind at 13. I think Tipsarevic is ready for a move into the top 6 to 8. If you look at the statistics for his match against Raonic in the finals of Chennai (http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Match-Facts-Pop-Up.aspx?t=891&y=2012&r=7&p=R975), he is playing phenomenal tennis. Normally, he is one of the best returners in the game. He showed how tough he was as an alternate filling in for Murray in the year-end championships in London.

I have a special entreaty for Mardy Fish. Many pundits have demeaned his phenomenal year and tried to dismiss his performance as a one-off, flash in the pan who will soon be pushed out of the top 10. He has never been seeded in the top 8 at the Australian and he has a good chance to move much further than he did last year and improve his ranking yet again. Mardy broke down physically, like so many others, at the end of the year just when he had a chance to make a major impact. I think his game is unique among today’s top players and he provides a very difficult adjustment for the rest of the players. Hopefully, he has regrouped physically and is ready for the 2012 campaign. I’m hoping he is fit again and maybe just a little better with his forehand (come see me! bring David!). I want to see his style succeed. Come on Mardy! You can be the surprise in the Top 5!

Newcomers

The statistics I cited above for Tipsarevic show two players played well that day. Raonic is healthy again and ready to take a place at the first table. Look for him to be in the top 10 by the end of the year; just barely, but I think he will get there. It will take time to see whether he can develop his defensive skills and make an even sharper move than that, but his serve is huge.

Right behind Raonic in the rankings is Kei Nishikori. He showed some brilliant play in Basel and is ready to make a move as well. Pure speed. And speed kills.

I’m also hoping John Isner has taken his fitness and agility to the next level. His big body is an advantage and a disadvantage. He has built a game that takes advantage of his height, but I don’t think he has wrung every little bit of fitness out of his body that he could. Certainly, he is one of the most improved players over the last couple of years, but he needs a little bit of that “Lendl” mindset and I think he can make one more jump.

I’m just dying to see it all play out.

TennisChiro

Topics: Atp, Australian Open, djokovic, Federer, Murray, nadal

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