Federer, Ferrer, Tsonga and Berdych: 4, 5, 6, 7 – Where are 1, 2 and 3!!??

Written by: Tennischiro on 26th November 2011

Federer, Ferrer, Tsonga and Berdych: 4, 5, 6, 7 - Where are 1, 2 and 3!!??

Roger Federer of Switzerland celebrates after ATP World Tour tennis semi final match against David Ferrer of Spain held in O2 Arena in London, Britain on 26 November 2011. Federer defeated Ferrer 2-0. EPA/KERIM OKTEN |

I’ve watched an awful lot of tennis this week. I think I’ve seen almost all but one of the singles matches and charted 8 or 9 of them. At the beginning of the week, what odds could you have gotten that Djokovic, Nadal and Murray would all be gone before the weekend began? I’ll have more to say about them at another time; for now, suffice it to say they need to study Roger Federer’s schedule. But for now, I want to make a brief comment about the 4 semifinalists.

Federer: he comes into the semis, fresh, healthy and playing perhaps his best tennis of the year. I thought his play against Nadal was some of his best ever (and so did Nadal). This whole thing is setting up very nicely for him. A win in the semis will bring him back up to #3 and if he can maintain form and win the Australian he can leapfrog Nadal and get within hailing distance of Djokovic and his number one ranking. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. He gets an opponent he has never lost to in 11 tries. The only danger is that he just comes out flat as he has on occasion the last couple of years. But he doesn’t seem to have that problem this week and the O2 crowd will help him get up for the weekend matches. Roger is still the heavy favorite to win; in fact, much more so than at the beginning of the week.

Ferrer: he had it within his grasp against Berdych, up a break in the second set not once, but twice; in fact, he was up a set, 4-3, 40-15 and he abandoned his aggressive, attacking style of play and reverted to his instincts: he went to the “prevent defense”. It didn’t work any better for him than it did for the Dolphins against the Cowboys on Thursday night. In the meantime, as Jason Goodall pointed out on TennisTV, Berdych was coming to the net. He came in on 10 of the first 20 points on the set, and even though he was still down a break, 2-1, he continued to attack; and he turned the match completely running off 7 games in a row to go up 5-0 in the third. Ferrer said his serve let him down in that 4-3 game, but he had gone to the “prevent defense” a couple of games before that. That is not the strategy that got him those victories against Djokovic and Murray. He had become just a bit tentative at the time he needed to be just a little bit bold. That was a physically and psychologically draining loss and he doesn’t have much time to recover, but he is still the “Energizer bunny” of men’s pro tennis. He will keep going…and going…and going. There are almost no expectations for him to pull off the upset tomorrow. And that is the reason I think he is still dangerous. There is no pressure on him and he knows he can’t beat Federer by playing safe. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain. So I expect him to be unexpectedly tough tomorrow.

Berdych is an entirely different story. He may be playing the best tennis of his career. I watched him play all three of his matches this week and he is moving better and better, going forward more and more and ever more effectively. He is Lazarus in this field, having been down match point and a routine, if not easy, match point backhand volley away from being, for all practical purposes, eliminated from a chance at the semis against Tipsarevic. Then he struggled to find his range in tonight’s match with Ferrer, going down a set and a break and just 5 points from being out of it. But he played boldly and very well and did turn it around driving the ball deep, transitioning to the net beautifully finishing with volleys that a doubles specialist could be proud of. Whether or not, Tomas achieves his dreams this weekend, I believe he will move further up the rankings next year, and he will have to knock a couple of people down to do that. He is faltering just a little when he changes directions to take especially his forehand down the line and noticeably on pressure points. But he is working his way through that, building massive amounts of confidence with each victory. I think he hits bigger than anyone in this field and his ball penetrates more than some of the players with heavier balls. I believe this is one of the reasons he gives Federer so much trouble. Roger can’t pull off his magic tricks with the deep penetrating drives that Berdych hits with more and more aplomb. With each match, he appears more and more comfortable moving along the baseline, and also moving forward to finish the points at the net.

The only time Berdych and Tsonga met, was in the semis of Beijing the first week of October. Berdych won that encounter 6-1 in the third; it was an amazing display of ball striking, the biggest I think I have ever seen. Tsonga is the one player who may hit the ball even bigger than Berdych, but not as consistently. He is also a swifter, more agile, if somewhat less disciplined mover. Jo-Wilfred has had some great wins this year, beating Federer in a signature come-from-behind win at Wimbledon and again in Canada before losing to him at the US Open and two weeks ago in Paris. If he is making his first serve, he simply can’t be broken and he can make a shot off almost anything; so nothing is safe. But he just seems to be a little too up and down to hold it together against the very best playing well, and that is Berdych right now, as well as Federer. At the same time, Tsonga as well as Berdych are right at that age where they either mature and become really great players who actually win Majors, or they devolve to another name in the lexicon of “best who never won a Major”. I see them both on the edge of greatness. That’s why it should be a great year for watching tennis in 2012 and also why it should be a great match between Tomas and Jo-Wilfred tomorrow. I’m taking Berdych there, but don’t bet your lunch money!