Women’s Look Forward: Fed Cup

Written by: Staff on 5th November 2011

Women's Look Forward: Fed Cup

Svetlana Kuznetsova of Russia returns the ball to Lucie Safarova of Czech Republic during their Fed Cup World Group final tennis match in Moscow, Russia 05 November 2011. EPA/MAXIM SHIPENKOV |

Somewhere out there, the statisticians are rubbing their hands.

Which is better? A team with one extremely strong player but limited depth, or a team with lots of depth but no one “horse”? This Fed Cup final could answer that.

Russia, which is hosting the final on an indoor hardcourt in Moscow, was supposed to have the deep team: Vera Zvonareva, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and Maria Kirilenko. Fine singles players all, but Zvonareva has been struggling and looked bad at Istanbul. Kuznetsova has had a crummy year. Pavlyuchenkova is actually the Russian #2, but no one seems to quite believe that. And Kirilenko, although she is up to #5 in doubles, has no obvious partner on the team.

And then Zvonareva pulled out with a shoulder injury. Her place is taken by Elena Vesnina — a surprise move which strengthens the Russians in doubles (they now have two Top Ten doubles players) but is a real blow in singles.

The visiting team, the Czech Republic, has the hottest player in the tie right now in the form of Petra Kvitova, the new world #2. But whereas Russia two three Top Twenty singles players, and three players in the Top Thirty, the Czechs have to go with Lucie Safarova as their #2. And if anything happens to either singles player, their fallback is Lucie Hradecka. In doubles, they have world #2 Kveta Peschke, but no real partner for her except Hradecka.

The Russians made a truly intriguing lineup decision: Instead of playing their top two, Pavlyuchenkova and Kuznetsova, in singles, they are listing Kirilenko and Kuznetsova, with Pavlyuchenkova supposed to play doubles with Vesnina.

It’s just a wild guess, but we’re guessing that that is what in chess would be called a sacrifice. Kirilenko is up against Kvitova. Without Zvonareva, they probably didn’t expect to win that anyway. So they can put Kirilenko in the match they will lose in any case, saving Pavlyuchenkova to play the reverse singles, and then have Kirilenko and Vesnina play the doubles.

Still, what looked like a fairly close tie now appears tilted toward the Czechs. As things stand, Kvitova really ought to win both her singles matches. Can the Russians scrape out two singles matches and the doubles? On paper, assuming Pavlyuchenkova plays the reverse singles, they will be favored in both singles matches, although not by much. As for the doubles — Kirilenko/Vesnina have the better combined ranking, but Peschke and Hradecka both won doubles Slams this year, and Vesnina has choked in doubles Slam finals. The nerves factor clearly favors the Czechs. It’s not an open-and-shut tie, but Zvonareva’s shoulder injury appears to be hurting the Russians almost as much as it’s hurting Zvonareva herself.

“DAILY TENNIS NEWS WIRE”

Topics: Fed Cup, Petra Kvitova, Svetlana Kuznetsova