The Men are Rounding into Form for the US Open

Written by: Tennischiro on 19th August 2011

The Men are Rounding into Form for the US Open

Mardy Fish of the US returns to Robin Haase of the Netherlands during their second round match for the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, 26 May 2011. EPA/GUILLAUME HORCAJUELO |

I got the chance to watch bits to large parts of 6 of the 8 third round men’s matches from Cincy today. It’s a real problem. I’ve figured out how to use TennisTV (I’ll tell you in another post when I’ve had some sleep) and I got a good look at a lot of today’s play.

I can’t say much about Murray or Berdych; I didn’t see any of their matches, but Murray is eager after his early exit last week; and both summarily dispatched their opponents relatively easily. Berdych only lost one point on his first serve in the entire match against a top ten player.

Berdych plays Federer tomorrow and he is always game to repeat his previous upsets of the icon. But Federer is the one guy in the top 4 who looks completely relaxed. He’s so laid back he had to compose himself before getting ready to serve in the second set against Blake; he was losing it watching the “Kiss Cam”!

Djokovic is clearly the number one player in the world this year, but the inevitable strain of fighting off the second loss of the year is taking its’ toll. He’s working very hard to pump himself up to finish matches he is winning easily. Nole will play Monfils today. Gael had a 119 minute battle with Dodig Wednesday before the Croat had to surrender; but he cut that time almost in half against Kohlschreiber and certainly appeared to be enjoying himself and none the worse for wear. He was showing off plenty of his trademark speed and pure athleticism, and not even facing a single break point.

Murray plays Gilles Simon who outlasted David Ferrer. Ferrer is the only one of the top 8 seeds to fail to reach the quarters. In all, 11 of the 16 seeds made it to the round of 16. That’s unusual on the men’s side. Simon showed me why he is so tough. Ferrer is one of the hardest working, fittest guys on tour. By the end of the match, he was pulling his hair out trying to finish off points. But Simon just kept bringing the ball back waiting for his opportunity, …and waiting, …and waiting, … and eventually Ferrer couldn’t take it anymore and he did something uncharacteristically foolish. Simon looked like he was expending almost no energy; of course, he was, but so much less than Ferrer. Unfortunately for Simon, Murray has pretty good shot tolerance and a lot more weapons than Ferrer. Sometimes Andy plays too reactively instead of proactively and it will be interesting to see how he deals with Simon’s primary tactic. Will he be aggressive and brilliantly creative as he was in winning that first set from Nadal at Wimbledon…or will he fall back to reacting and waiting…and waiting…

Finally, we get to Nadal and my new hope, Mardy Fish. First, Mardy. He showed he is for real with solid performances against both Davydenko Wednesday and Gasquet yesterday. He could easily have been forgiven if he faltered after the great week in Montreal. But he was even better, allowing each of those former top ten players just one unconverted break point each; at the same time, Mardy converted 5/7 against Nicolai and 2/2 against Richard. So he got off the court in relatively short time which is a critical factor for him when he is playing so many matches this summer. Mardy is building confidence and he is eager. I heard one comment he made that he wanted to win so bad that it hurt. So he is not satisfied with the greatest summer he has ever had; he wants more. If he keeps playing this way I think he just might get it.

Nadal, however, stands in the way. Definitely one of the greatest competitors ever, he won a 3 hour 37 minute 51 second match against Verdasco that was in and out of doubt right up to that 51st second of the final minute. Then Rafa simply stuffed poor Fernando back in his pocket and went out to play a doubles match. Probably against the pleadings of his coach, but surely Rafa did not want to let down his doubles partner, Mario Lopez. Or maybe he just wanted to work out the kinks a little…I don’t think so…They lost that doubles match. But Rafa really looked tired today. I think he knows he needs to lose so he can rest up for the US Open, but I don’t think his psyche can accept that.

So, I think…

Monfils will take out Djokovic, unless Nole can stay close and get into the third set. Monfils is not tough enough to hand the world number one his second defeat of the year and his first on hardcourts. But it will wear him down and make it easier for Federer in the semis; even a little tired, he would still be too much for Berdych.

Federer has never forgiven Berdych for having the audacity to usurp his bid for a gold medal so close to Mt. Olympus in 2004 and Roger has just one title to his name this year; he’ll be very tough for Tomas to deal with today! I see Roger in the final.

Murray should beat Simon. He’s done it 6 times out of 7 times and won 4 or the 5 sets they’ve played this year including a 6-0 third set in the last match in Madrid. Simon won their first meeting over 4 years ago on clay. There were 11 service breaks in 23 games that day. These courts and balls in Cincy are playing much quicker than that. Murray is upset about his poor showing last week. He will be ready.

Finally, we get to Fish and Nadal. I’m taking Fish, but he has to make at least his average of 59% of his first serves and he has to attack Rafa’s backhand side with deep balls and short wide ones; that will open the forehand side up for attack. And I see Fish in the final as well, unless he is forced into an extended battle with Rafa that leaves him too stiff and tired to play the patient attacking style that has defined his new strategy.

In the final, the smart money has to go on Federer, but Fish has beaten him before on hardcourts and I don’t think he has ever had the skills or confidence he possesses at the moment and is building stronger with every single win. If he can do it, he becomes the instant top dark horse for the US Open with the added benefit of not facing any of the big 4 before the quarterfinals.

It’s shaping up as a very exciting US Open for the men. Damn, I hope the USTA makes it available on line again this year.